Figure 12
From: Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm
Peak timing: effect of interventions by antiviral treatment. Peak weeks of the epidemic activity in the reference stochastic forecast output (SFO) (gray) and in the antiviral scenario (red), for a set of countries in the northern hemisphere. The 95% reference ranges of the simulated peak week were obtained by analysis of 2,000 stochastic realizations of the model for three different values of the seasonal rescaling factor, α min: 0.6, 0.65, and 0.7.