The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a moderately contagious disease

Table 1 Main results

	SIM			SIM50			SIM20
Results	Mean	95% SI		Mean	95% SI		Mean	95% SI
Total number of infected	320 555	301 587	339 243	154 517	145 664	163 678	64 307	60 326	68 293
Percentage of population	3.6	3.4	3.8	1.7	1.6	1.8	0.72	0.67	0.76
Intermunicipal infections (n)	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2
Incidence after 60 days (n)	77 184	72 760	81 784	37 065	34 941	39 321	15 240	14 307	16 190
Percentage of population	0.9	0.8	0.9	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.17	0,16	0.18
Afflicted municipalities (n)	262.1	258.5	265.4	47.2	46.6	47.8	34.0	33.6	34.5
Mean incidence in municipalities (n)	267.1	251.4	283.1	128.3	120.5	136.0	52.7	49.5	56.1
Mean influence distance (km)	1 222	-		245.1	-		153.8	-
Travel intensity matrix	Value			Value			Value
Total travel intensity (millions/day)	4.2	-		2.9	-		1.5	-
Intermunicipal one-way routes (n)	11 611	-		1 386	-		797	-
Summary	Value			Value			Value
Extinction runs (n)	262	-		268	-		305	-
Mean time for extinction (days)	3.48	2.84	4.14	3.48	2.78	4.25	3.61	2.85	4.46
Mean number of afflicted municipalities before extinction (n)	1.33	1.26	1.41	1.29	1.21	1.36	1.27	1.22	1.34
Total number of realizations	1 000	-		1 000	-		1 000	-

The table shows the main results along with miscellaneous information about the simulation.
Figures refer to simulated values at the end of the run, 60 days. The mean, where applicable, was taken over the set of runs that ran their course through the full 60 days.
The extinction runs hence did not affect the means but their numbers are of course interesting in their own right.
The 95% simulation intervals (SI) were calculated by bootstrapping 10 000 samples.
By incidence, we mean the number of infectious people.
Intermunicipal infections is the percentage of the total number of infected that caught the disease via intermunicipal infection.
There are 289 municipalities in Sweden and the population is approximately 8.9 million.

ISSN: 1741-7015