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Table 1 Parameter values

From: Predictability and epidemic pathways in global outbreaks of infectious diseases: the SARS case study

Parameter

Description

 

Baseline value

T 0

Initial offset from 21 February (days)

 

3*

β

Rate of transmission

 

0.57*

L(t = 0)

Number of initial latent individuals

 

10*

  

21 February + T 0-20 March

1.00

s f (t)

Scaling factor for the rate of transmission

21 March – 9 April

0.37

  

10 April – 11 July

0.06

r β

Relative infectiousness of patients at the hospital

 

0.2

ε -1

Average latency period (days)

 

4.6

  

21 February + T 0-25 March

4.84

μ -1(t)

Average period from onset of symptoms to admission (days)

25 March – 1 April

3.83

  

2 April – 11 July

3.67

μ R -1

Average period from admission to recovery (days)

 

23.5

μ D -1

Average period from admission to death (days)

 

35.9

d

Case fatality rate

 

0.2

  1. Baseline values for all epidemiological parameters and initial conditions. Parameters marked with an asterisk (*) are estimated by our model through the fitting procedure described in the main text. The three successive decreasing values for the μ -1model are the prompter, identification and subsequent isolation of infectious individuals [11]. A step function is also assumed for the scaling factor s f (t) of the transmission parameter β, with values taken from the estimates of the effective reproductive number R t with respect to R 0 during the early stage of SARS epidemic in Hong Kong [9]. This corresponds to the effective reduction of the reproductive number due to the application of control measures [9].