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Table 3 Model predicted cancer (all stages) and false positive test results per 100,000 (Ontario).

From: Human papillomavirus testing with Pap triage for cervical cancer prevention in Canada: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Strategy

False Positives

Cancer (All Stages)

No Intervention (Natural history) 1

-

2,145

HPV with Pap Triage, q5, age 25 1 (SS 26)

2,871

736

HPV with Pap Triage, q3, age 25 1 (SS 23)

5,585

467

HPV with Pap Triage, q5, age 18 (SS 25)

7,044

679

HPV with Pap Triage, q3, age 18 1 (SS 22)

9,872

437

Miller at age 18, then HPV with Pap Triage, q5, age 25 (SS 27)

11,404

658

Miller at age 18, then HPV with Pap Triage, q3, age 25 (SS 24)

14,160

411

Miller strategy (Pap q1 beginning at age 18, then q3 at age 21) (SS 1)

20,529

809

HPV only, q5, age 25 (SS 8)

22,437

586

Pap only, q2, age 18 (SS 3)

25,103

600

Pap with HPV Triage, q1, age 25 (SS 20)

27,660

364

Pap and HPV, q5, age 25 (SS 17)

30,817

548

Miller at age 18, then Pap with HPV Triage, q1, age 25 1 (SS 21)

37,034

330

HPV only, q3, age 25 (SS 5)

40,789

361

HPV only, q5, age 18 (SS 7)

40,957

538

Pap with HPV Triage, q1, age 18 1 (SS 19)

44,903

309

Pap only, q1, age 18 1 (SS 2)

46,337

303

Pap and HPV, q5, age 18 (SS16)

50,790

500

Pap and HPV, q3, age 25 (SS 14)

54,835

335

HPV only, q3, age 18 (SS 4)

60,456

330

Miller at age 18, then HPV only, q5, age 25 (SS 9)

61,375

517

Miller at age 18, then Pap and HPV, q5, age 25 (SS 18)

73,470

481

Pap and HPV, q3, age 18 (SS 13)

76,438

304

Miller at age 18, then HPV only, q3, age 25 (SS 6)

79,887

301

Pap and HPV, q2, age 25 (SS 11)

82,340

229

Miller at age 18, then Pap and HPV, q3, age 25 (SS 15)

97,645

283

Pap and HPV, q2, age 18 1 (SS 10)

118,646

180

Miller at age 18, then Pap and HPV, q2, age 252 (SS 12)

125,229

184

  1. 1 Strategy falls on the efficiency frontier (for Ontario)