Figure 9

The effects of size of baseline isolation effectiveness and diagnostic rate on the likelihood of observing an outbreak. Probability that no major epidemic unfolds as a function of isolation effectiveness and time from symptoms onset to diagnosis. Epidemiological parameter values for EVD are shown in Table 1. The mean time from symptoms onset to diagnosis (γ _a0) is set at one, two and three days. The relative infectiousness of hospitalized cases (l ₀) is varied from 0 to 1. Population size N is set at 100,000. The baseline value of R₀ is set at 1.8 by adjusting the transmission rate. The curves shown correspond to the mean of the results obtained from 500 model simulations. EVD, Ebola virus disease; R₀, basic reproduction number.