Table 4 Cumulative total events averted (all ages) across 43 sub-Saharan African countries, cumulative by 5 year periods for each of the four deliveries: EPI (6–12 weeks), EPI with boosters, expanded routine (6–9 months) and expanded routine with booster
Events averted | At 5 year followup (thousands) | At 10 year followup (thousands) | At 15 year followup (thousands) |
|---|---|---|---|
EPI (6-12 weeks) | |||
Uncomplicated | 72,723 (47,523-82,667) | 148,991 (101,067-176,664) | 204,966 (144,404-246,843) |
Severe | 1,757 (1,223-2,460) | 2,608 (1,159-3,943) | 3,020 (446-5,414) |
Hospitalisations | 842 (579-1243) | 1,254 (527-1,955) | 1476 (220-2,653) |
Direct deaths | 206 (126-340) | 370 (152-576) | 482 (149-798) |
All deaths | 503 (235-647) | 1033 (558-1389) | 1537 (879-2074) |
DALYs | 27,075 (12,869-34,801) | 55,687 (30,489-74,302) | 83,364 (48,162-111,434) |
Direct DALYs | 11,482 (7,159-18,740) | 20,743 (9,307-31,884) | 27,642 (9,999-44,694) |
EPI with booster | |||
Uncomplicated | 97,337 (63,960-110,268) | 217,564 (146,622-256,595) | 304,518 (212,980-364,054) |
Severe | 2,441 (1,705-3,333) | 4,087 (2,554-5,810) | 4,975 (2,225-7,629) |
Hospitalisations | 1,168 (808-1,655) | 1,960 (1,241-2,858) | 2,416 (1,113-3,703) |
Direct deaths | 281 (173-421) | 549 (332-823) | 731 (384-1,134) |
All deaths | 622 (320-816) | 1334 (771-1674) | 1995 (1163-2580) |
DALYs | 33,413 (17,362-43,664) | 71,818 (41,729-89,598) | 108,255 (63,463-138,582) |
Direct DALYs | 15,519 (9,626-23,042) | 30,580 (18,902-45,470) | 41,714 (23,481-64,095) |
Expanded routine (6-9 months) | |||
Uncomplicated | 58,230 (38,260-66,696) | 119,426 (80,366-141,899) | 162,454 (112,002-195,551) |
Severe | 1,528 (1,054-2,054) | 2,560 (1,788-3,490) | 3,239 (1,974-4,611) |
Hospitalisations | 727 (501-1,048) | 1224 (836-1,746) | 1,565 (890-2,315) |
Direct deaths | 162 (88-264) | 306 (173-488) | 406 (217-652) |
All deaths | 329 (160-448) | 684 (375-886) | 1008 (500-1293) |
DALYs | 17,670 (8,749-24,049) | 36,881 (20,354-47,826) | 54,822 (27,867-70,146) |
Direct DALYs | 8,955 (4,999-14,537) | 17,123 (9,960-26,781) | 23,251 (13,386-36,555) |
Expanded routine with booster | |||
Uncomplicated | 79,300 (52,661-90,279) | 179,372 (121,591-211,522) | 250,819 (173,421-300,168) |
Severe | 2,060 (1,455-2,711) | 3,744 (2,863-5,028) | 4,839 (3,376-6,722) |
Hospitalisations | 982 (688-1,346) | 1,786 (1,332-2,499) | 2,323 (1,608-3,335) |
Direct deaths | 218 (137-324) | 439 (305-655) | 585 (385-883) |
All deaths | 418 (228-565) | 909 (561-1122) | 1333 (811-1634) |
DALYs | 22,409 (12,370-30,176) | 48,905 (30,345-60,518) | 72,513 (44,534-88,531) |
Direct DALYs | 12,012 (7,628-17,739) | 24,429 (17,088-35,728) | 33,367 (22,551-49,362) |