Skip to main content

Table 1 Predictors of an unfavourable outcome for all data (adjusted for treatment) and within each treatment arm. Prediction models fitted all factors significant in the “all data” model (p <0.05, likelihood ratio test) with the addition of TTP on MGIT which was significant in the “ethambutol arm” model. Factors not listed in this table were not significant in any model

From: Limited role of culture conversion for decision-making in individual patient care and for advancing novel regimens to confirmatory clinical trials

Multivariable odds ratio (95 % CI)

All data

Control arm patients only

Isoniazid arm patients only

Ethambutol arm patients only

Control

Reference

   

Isoniazid

1.81 (1.18, 2.78)

   

Ethambutol

2.88 (1.92, 4.33)

   
 

p <0.001

   

BMI per 1 kg/m2

0.92 (0.87, 0.98)

0.93 (0.82, 1.05)

0.95 (0.85, 1.05)

0.90 (0.83, 0.99)

p = 0.004

p = 0.193

p = 0.286

p = 0.027

History of smoking

1.63 (1.15, 2.31)

2.12 (0.99, 4.53)

2.34 (1.23, 4.46)

1.15 (0.69, 1.92)

p = 0.005

p = 0.046

p = 0.007

p = 0.592

HIV positive

2.93 (1.69, 5.08)

2.64 (0.90, 7.78)

1.95 (0.72, 5.28)

4.46 (1.79, 11.09)

p <0.001

p = 0.100

p = 0.210

p = 0.002

TTP on MGIT (per 0.1 log10(day))

0.97 (0.90, 1.05)

1.17 (1.03, 1.32)a

1.02 (0.89, 1.17)

0.84 (0.74, 0.95)

p = 0.439

p = 0.024

p = 0.789

p = 0.003

Male gender

1.69 (1.13, 2.53)

1.10 (0.48, 2.55)

1.94 (0.94, 3.98)

2.09 (1.13, 3.85)

p = 0.009

p = 0.817

p = 0.060

p = 0.014

Cavities on X-ray

1.93 (1.22, 3.05)

1.62 (0.62, 4.19)

2.82 (1.15, 6.94)

1.75 (0.89, 3.41)

p = 0.003

p = 0.302

p = 0.013

p = 0.091

  1. aThis association (p = 0.024) indicates a higher probability of an unfavourable outcome with higher TTP on MGIT, indicating a lower bacillary load which is biologically counter-intuitive. This is a modest odds ratio with a fairly wide confidence interval—similar results are seen in the univariable model. Due to the multiplicity in the number of tests done to evaluate baseline predictors this is therefore likely a chance finding