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Fig. 1 | BMC Medicine

Fig. 1

From: Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis

Fig. 1

Model validation and estimates. a Weekly number of cases over the period August 2014 – May 2015 according to the WHO Ebola situation report, patient database and Guinean Ministry of Health (bars) and predicted by the model (the blue line is the average, and the shaded blue region is the 95 % confidence interval of simulated epidemics). The red line, set on February 25, 2015, marks the end of the calibration period. b Predicted and observed cumulative number of cases by prefecture and region as of February 25, 2015. c Boxplot of the proportions of transmission by setting as of August 15, 2014, and February 25, 2015, in order to show the variation of these quantities. August 15, 2015, is chosen in such a way as to allow a comparison with the results for Liberia presented previously [5]; February 25, 2015, corresponds to the end of the calibration period

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BMC Medicine

ISSN: 1741-7015

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