Fig. 1

Melanoma and lung cancer have distinct predicted total mutation loads (PTMLs) that predict actual total mutation load (ATML). For validation, PTML was generated for independent melanoma cohorts (3 pooled cohorts, n = 312, R² = 0.71; cutaneous only: n = 258, R² = 0.73) [12–14] (a) and lung cancer (2 pooled cohorts, n = 217, R² = 0.81; lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) only: n = 199, R² = 0.82) samples (b) [15, 16]. The melanoma- and lung-specific PTML strongly correlated with the ATML of samples from each cancer type, respectively. The lung cancer PTML performs well for both LUAD, lung squamous cell carcinoma, and not otherwise specified non-small cell lung carcinoma samples. A PTML score of zero correlates strongly with an ATML ≤ 100 in both cancers