Table 3 Estimates of lifetime costs, effects and cost-effectiveness for different extrapolation assumptions

 Costs

£143

£588

£782

(95% confidence interval)

(£121 to £169)

(£425 to £745)

(£526 to £1110)

 QALYs

14.352

14.376

14.361

(95% confidence interval)

(5.100 to 15.922)

(5.108 to 15.95)

(5.095 to 15.941)

ICER per QALY

–

£18,372 vs no screening

Dominated by MMS

(95% confidence interval)

(£7709 to £96,784)

 Life years

24.743

24.820

24.818

(95% confidence interval)

(24.706 to 24.771)

(24.789 to 24.840)

(24.786 to 24.839)

 Ovarian cancer deaths

1.99%

1.04%

1.05%

(95% confidence interval)

(1.65% to 2.45%)

(0.85% to 1.34%)

(0.87% to 1.37%)

Same parametric models

No screening

MMS

USS

 Costs

£128

£587

£780

(95% confidence interval)

(£109 to £149)

(£427 to £745)

(£520 to £1105)

 QALYs

14.343

14.356

14.341

(95% confidence interval)

(5.174 to 15.933)

(5.176 to 15.949)

(5.166 to 15.94)

 ICER per QALY

–

£36,769 vs no screening

Dominated by MMS

(95% confidence interval)

(£13,888 to dominated)

 Life years

24.778

24.821

24.818

(95% confidence interval)

(24.751 to 24.797)

(24.789 to 24.84)

(24.787 to 24.838)

Ovarian cancer deaths

1.49%

1.03%

.05%

(95% confidence interval)

(1.29% to 1.77%)

(0.85% to 1.35%)

(0.86% to 1.36%)

Model discrepancy; 5% per year

No screening

MMS

USS

 Costs

£179

£614

£851

(95% confidence interval)

(£136 to £235)

(£440 to £784)

(£578 to £1194)

 QALYs

14.209

14.244

14.194

(95% confidence interval)

(4.671 to 15.903)

(4.66 to 15.954)

(4.622 to 15.914)

 ICER per QALY

–

£12,643 vs no screening

Dominated by MMS

(95% confidence interval)

(£3734 to dominated)

 Life years

24.659

24.800

24.722

(95% confidence interval)

(24.548 to 24.739)

(24.591 to 24.863)

(24.417 to 24.801)

 Ovarian cancer deaths

3.22%

1.99%

3.42%

(95% confidence interval)

(2.02% to 5.08%)

(0.70% to 4.73%)

(1.37% to 7.59%)