Fig. 3

Model projections for annual TB incidence and prevalence, showing projections in the presence of RNTCP (blue region) and in its absence (red region). To construct these regions, incidence and prevalence curves were determined for each of the parameter sets in the sampled posterior distribution. From the resulting set of curves, upper and lower boundaries for the trajectories were determined using the 2.5^th and 97.5^th percentiles for incidence and prevalence at each time point. The bold lines represent the epidemic trajectories corresponding to the maximum posterior density (best-fitting parameter set). Circles and uncertainty intervals in black represent WHO estimates for incidence and prevalence