Fig. 6

Forecasting early epidemic growth phase data featuring sub-exponential growth dynamics using a classic exponential growth model (left) and the generalized growth model (right). The shaded region corresponds to the model calibration period and the non-shaded area corresponds to the forecasting period. Circles correspond to the case-series data. The blue curves correspond to the ensemble of epidemic forecasts. The red solid and dashed lines correspond to the median and interquartile range computed from the ensemble of forecasts, respectively. This figure illustrates how extrapolations of epidemic impact from the early growth trend in case incidence of an epidemic are subject to both model and data uncertainty. Transmission models calibrated using a few data points of the early phase of an infectious disease outbreak assuming exponential growth epidemic dynamics, such as the widely used SIR-type compartmental models, are unable to predict anything other than an exponentially growing epidemic in the absence of susceptible depletion, interventions or behavior changes, leading to great overestimation of cumulative case burden. More flexible transmission models, such as the generalized growth model, capture a wider range of epidemic growth profiles, ranging from sub-exponential to exponential growth dynamics. Please note the figures are on a different scale