Fig. 4

The number of patients received from each of the regions (a) multiplied by the prevalence in these regions (b) gives the total number of expected introductions into the current region (c). The difference in absolute number of expected introductions between regions is driven by patient flow, even if the relative prevalence differs considerably across the regions. a The number of patients received per region, from the same hospital (solid blue dots), other hospitals in the same region (open blue dots), hospitals in each of the other regions (grey dots), and hospitals in the Manchester region (red dots). b The prevalence of confirmed carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) isolates in each region. c The expected CPE introductions per region. The example of the Manchester regions (in red) shows that the difference in absolute number of expected introductions between regions is primarily driven by patient flow, even if the relative prevalence differs considerably across the regions