Table 3 Characteristics of assessed WHO prognostic indicators

Convulsions

≥2/24 hours

8197

2252

772

14.7%

2 (1.71–2.34)

von Seidlein 2012 [13]; Bassat 2008 [39]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Imbert 2003 [28]; Gay-Andrieu 2005 [32]; Camara 2011 [42]; Modiano 1998 [25]

Convulsions^a

≥2/24 hours

34233

10573

1901

8.1%

1.94 (1.76–2.13)

von Seidlein 2012 [13]; Bassat 2008 [39]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Imbert 2003 [28]; Gay-Andrieu 2005 [32]; Camara 2011 [42]; Modiano 1998 [25]; Kendjo 2013 [19]

Coma score

BCS ≤2

16796

1675

4881

21.3%

4.83 (3.11–7.5)

Krishna 1994 [23]; von Seidlein 2012 [13]; Ranque 2008 [40]; Orimadegun 2007 [38]; Oduro 2007 [37]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Jallow 2012 [18]; Issifou 2007 [36]; Gay-Andrieu 2005 [32]; English 1997 [17]; Dzeing-Ella 2005 [31]; Bassat 2008 [39]; Camara 2011 [42]; Bronzan 2007 [35]; Orimadegun 2014 [43]

Coma score^a

BCS ≤2

42832

7316

2804

20.7%

5.04 (3.35–759)

Krishna 1994 [23]; von Seidlein 2012 [13]; Ranque 2008 [40]; Orimadegun 2007 [38]; Oduro 2007 [37]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Jallow 2012 [18]; Issifou 2007 [36]; Gay-Andrieu 2005 [32]; English 1997 [17]; Dzeing-Ella 2005 [31]; Bassat 2008 [39]; Camara 2011 [42]; Bronzan 2007 [35]; Orimadegun 2014 [43]; Kendjo 2013 [19]

Impaired consciousness

BCS 3–4

276

95

42

9.5%

0.58 (0.25–1.37)

Gay-Andrieu 2005 [32]; Camara 2011 [42]

Prostration

Cannot sit OR cannot eat (breastfeed) OR cannot walk OR cannot stand up

11607

6452

1176

8.3%

1.12 (0.45–2.82)

Jallow 2012 [18]; Zeidan 2005 [34]; von Seidlein 2012 [13]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Imbert 2003 [28]; Camara 2011 [42]; Bassat 2008 [39]; Assimadi 1998 [24]; Modiano 1998 [25]

Prostration^a

Cannot sit OR cannot eat (breastfeed) OR cannot walk OR cannot stand up

37643

22322

2305

7.0%

1.42 (0.39–5.14)

Jallow 2012 [18]; Zeidan 2005 [34]; von Seidlein 2012 [13]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Imbert 2003 [28]; Camara 2011 [42]; Bassat 2008 [39]; Assimadi 1998 [24]; Modiano 1998 [25]; Kendjo 2013 [19]

Deep breathing

NR

9106

1230

965

22.2%

3.8 (3.29–4.39)

von Seidlein 2012 [13]; Maitland 2003 [29]; English 1996 [16]; Varandas 2000 [26]; Jallow 2012 [18]

Deep breathing^a

NR

32882

4049

1772

19.1%

4.89 (3.28–7.29)

von Seidlein 2012 [13]; Maitland 2003 [29]; English 1996 [16]; Varandas 2000 [26]; Jallow 2012 [18]; Kendjo 2013 [19]

Indrawing^a

NR

26386

3137

1159

13.3%

4.63 (4.08–5.25)

English 1996 [16]; Kendjo 2013 [19]

Respiratory distress

Nasal flaring or costal indrawing or accessory muscle use OR Kussmal breathing/Cheyne–Stokes breathing OR deep breathing OR abnormalities in respiratory rate/rhythm OR dyspnea OR pulmonary edema

15343

3729

1526

17.5%

3.15 (2.79–3.35)

Jallow 2012 [18]; von Seidlein 2012 [13]; Ranque 2008 [40]; Oduro 2007 [37]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Issifou 2007 [36]; Imbert 2003 [28]; Gay Andrieu 2005 [32]; English 1996 [16]; Dzeing-Ella 2005 [31]; Camara 2011 [42]; Bassat 2008 [39]; Assimadi 1998 [24]; Varandas 2000 [26]; Modiano 1998 [25]

Shock/circulatory collapse

SBP <50 OR compensated shock (BP ≥70 + CRT ≥3 s) and decompensated (BP <70) OR SBP <60 in ≤5-year-old children OR SBP <80 in >5-year-old children OR septic shock score ≥2

7567

915

789

23.6%

4.31 (2.15–8.64)

Jallow 2012 [18]; von Seidlein 2012 [13]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Maitland 2003 [29]; Imbert 2003 [28]; Assimadi 1998 [24]; Camara 2011 [42]

Abnormalhemorrhage

NR

1349

17

199

23.5%

1.84 (0.6–5.67)

Assimadi 1998 [24]; Modiano 1998 [25]

Jaundice

11178

599

1203

17.4%

1.65 (1.31–2.07)

Jallow 2012 [18]; von Seidlein 2012 [13]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Maitland 2003 [29]; Imbert 2003 [28]; Camara 2011 [42]; Bassat 2008 [39]; Assimadi 1998 [24]

Hemoglobinuria

Verified by dipstick

7102

286

739

11.5%

1.84 (0.75–4.52)

Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Imbert 2003 [28]; Assimadi 1998 [24]; Camara 2011 [42]; Orimadegun 2014 [43]; von Seidlein 2012 [13]

Acidosis

BE < –8 mmol/L OR base deficit >15 OR BE < –12 mmol/L (all)

6549

2392

646

15.1%

3.32 (1.35–8.18)

Hendriksen 2012 [14]; Maitland 2005; Jallow 2012 [18]; Maitland 2003 [29]; English 1996 [16], Assimadi 1998 [24]; Orimadegun 2014 [43]

Severe anemia

Hematocrit <15% or Hb <5 g/dL

14078

5039

1406

8.2%

0.76 (0.50–1.13)

Jallow 2012 [18]; Hendriksen 2012 [14]; Camara 2011 [42]; Bassat 2008 [39]; Ranque 2008 [40]; Orimadegun 2007 [38]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Maitland 2003 [29]; Issifou 2007 [36]; Gay-Andrieu 2005 [32]; Dzeing-Ella 2005 [31]; Imbert 2003 [28]; Modiano 1998 [25];

Severe anemia^a

Hematocrit <15% or Hb <5 g/dL

40114

10418

2535

7.4%

0.81 (0.55–1.21)

Jallow 2012 [18]; Hendriksen 2012 [14]; Camara 2011 [42]; Bassat 2008 [39]; Ranque 2008 [40]; Orimadegun 2007 [38]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Maitland 2003 [29]; Issifou 2007 [36]; Gay-Andrieu 2005 [32]; Dzeing-Ella 2005 [31]; Imbert 2003 [28]; Modiano 1998 [25]; Kendjo 2013 [19]

Hyperlactatemia

Lactate ≥5 mmol/L or NR

2188

773

183

14.7%

3.76 (1.96–7.23)

Jallow 2012 [18]; Krishna 1994 [23]; Oduro 2007 [37]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Dzeing-Ella 2005 [31]

Hyperparasitemia

Hyperparsitemia >10% ([14]) or hyperparasitemia >4% ([32]) or parasitemia ≥250,000 p/μL ([43]) or P. falciparum parasite density >500,000/μL ([18])

7735

1164

873

13.2%

1.37 (1.13–1.66)

Jallow 2012 [18]; Hendriksen 2012 [14]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Imbert 2003 [28]; Gay-Andrieu 2005 [32]; Orimadegun 2014 [43]

Hyperparasitemia^a

Hyperparsitemia > 10% ([14]) or hyperparasitemia >4% ([32]) or parasitemia ≥250,000 p/μL ([19, 43]) or P. falciparum parasite density >500,000/μL ([18])

33771

6123

2002

6.5%

1.24 (1.11–1.4)

Jallow 2012 [18]; Hendriksen 2012 [14]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Imbert 2003 [28]; Gay-Andrieu 2005 [32]; Orimadegun 2014 [43]; Kendjo 2013 [19]

Hypoglycemia

Glucose <2.2 mmol/L

6358

37

48

16.2%

4.59 (2.68–7.89)

Jallow 2012 [18]; Krishna 1994 [23]; Imbert 2003 [28]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Issifou 2007 [36]; Gay-Andrieu 2005 [32]; Dzeing-Ella 2005 [31]; Camara 2011 [42]; Bassat 2008 [39]; Modiano 1998 [25]

Hypoglycemia^a

Glucose <2.2 mmol/L

31348

2933

2662

45.4%

4.81 (2.93–7.91)

Jallow 2012 [18]; Krishna 1994 [23]; Imbert 2003 [28]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Issifou 2007 [36]; Gay-Andrieu 2005 [32]; Dzeing-Ella 2005 [31]; Camara 2011 [42]; Bassat 2008 [39]; Modiano 1998 [25]; Kendjo 2013 [19]

Renal failure

Urine output of <12 mL/kg/24 hours and serum creatinine >265 μL/L over OR plasma creatinine >3 mg/dL

4757

32

547

40.6%

5.96 (2.93–12.11)

Jallow 2012 [18]; Imbert 2003 [28]; Assimadi 1998 [24]; Modiano 1998 [25]; Orimadegun 2014 [43]

Hyperpyrexia

>40 °C OR ≥40 °C

3946

125

919

24.8%

0.59 (0.11–3.19)

Jallow 2012 [18]; Zeidan 2005 [34]; Mockenhaupt 2004 [30]; Imbert 2003 [28]