Fig. 1

Example output from a single separatrix scenario, with R _0f = 2.0, g = 0.5, λ = 60 days, N _IPV = 1, c = 1. The colored surface represents the inferred probability that the OPV2 used in outbreak response continues to circulate, outside of the response region, 9 months after the final response campaign; in blue regions, the OPV2 deployed in outbreak response is likely to fail to establish long-term circulation, and in the red regions, the OPV is more likely to successfully export from the response region and survive for 9 months in simulation. The black solid line represents the parameter contour along which this survival probability is 50%. Gray crosses represent individual simulations in which this exportation and survival outcome occurs, and gray circles represent those in which it does not. The thin black dashed box indicates migration rates that are preferred by a calibration to a single traveling WPV1 outbreak in the region, in 2008. The y-axis, mean daily migration rate, is the average rate at which any simulated individual leaves their home province to visit another province; all migration is round trip with a mean trip duration of 1 day. The distribution of simulated points illustrates the behavior of the algorithm; the first round of the Separatrix algorithm broadly explores the space, and the second concentrates simulations around the contour of interest