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Table 2 Annual cardiometabolic deaths potentially prevented by a 10% or 30% price change for selected foods in the USa

From: The potential impact of food taxes and subsidies on cardiovascular disease and diabetes burden and disparities in the United States

Dietary factors

Disease outcomeb

10% price changec

30% price changec

  

No. of deaths/year prevented (95% UI)

Proportion (%) of deaths prevented (95% UI)

No. of deaths/year prevented (95% UI)

Proportion (%) of deaths prevented (95% UI)

Overall diet

CHD

12,236 (11,320–13,230)

3.4 (3.1–3.6)

33,293 (30,887–35,798)

9.2 (8.5–9.9)

Hypertensive HD

45 (34–60)

0.1 (0.1–0.2)

134 (102–179)

0.4 (0.3–0.5)

Stroke

6942 (6456–7430)

5.5 (5.1–5.9)

18726 (17,485–19,955)

14.9 (13.9–15.8)

Diabetes

2274 (2063–2626)

3.4 (3.1–4.0)

6287 (5756–7050)

9.5 (8.7–10.6)

CMD, total

23174 (22,024–24,595)

3.4 (3.2–3.6)

63268 (60,425–66,719)

9.2 (8.8–9.7)

Fruit

CHD

2213 (1852–2643)

0.6 (0.5–0.7)

6143 (5144–7316)

1.7 (1.4–2.0)

Stroke

3038 (2726–3397)

2.4 (2.2–2.7)

8308 (7478–9256)

6.6 (5.9–7.4)

CMD, total

5265 (4771–5817)

0.8 (0.7–0.8)

14475 (13125–15,974)

2.1 (1.9–2.3)

Vegetables

CHD

2873 (2443–3359)

0.8 (0.7–0.9)

8223 (7011–9578)

2.3 (1.9–2.6)

Stroke

3423 (3044–3818)

2.7 (2.4–3.0)

9554 (8497–10,585)

7.6 (6.7–8.4)

CMD, total

6294 (5722–6901)

0.9 (0.8–1.0)

17749 (16,176–19,458)

2.6 (2.4–2.8)

Nuts/seeds

CHD

3148 (2710–3599)

0.9 (0.7–1.0)

8214 (7116–9326)

2.3 (2.0–2.6)

Diabetes

269 (227–316)

0.4 (0.3–0.5)

701 (592–822)

1.1 (0.9–1.2)

CMD, total

3413 (2976–3863)

0.5 (0.4–0.6)

8912 (7788–10,049)

1.3 (1.1–1.5)

Whole grains

CHD

587 (457–720)

0.2 (0.1–0.2)

1741 (1356–2137)

0.5 (0.4–0.6)

Stroke

514 (453–579)

0.4 (0.4–0.5)

1522 (1343–1712)

1.2 (1.1–1.4)

Diabetes

425 (372–480)

0.6 (0.6–0.7)

1252 (1099–1413)

1.9 (1.7–2.1)

CMD, total

1527 (1376–1683)

0.2 (0.2–0.2)

4518 (4072–4977)

0.7 (0.6–0.7)

Processed meats

CHD

1700 (1315–2206)

0.5 (0.4–0.6)

5048 (3906–6493)

1.4 (1.1–1.8)

Diabetes

477 (385–580)

0.7 (0.6–0.9)

1408 (1141–1703)

2.1 (1.7–2.6)

CMD, total

2175 (1777–2689)

0.3 (0.3–0.4)

6447 (5286–7944)

0.9 (0.8–1.2)

Red meats, unprocessed

Diabetes

140 (106–176)

0.2 (0.2–0.3)

419 (316–524)

0.6 (0.5–0.8)

Sugar sweetened beverages

CHD

3544 (2921–4302)

1.0 (0.8–1.2)

10091 (8354–12,027)

2.8 (2.3–3.3)

Hypertensive HD

45 (34–60)

0.1 (0.1–0.2)

134 (102–179)

0.4 (0.3–0.5)

Stroke

67 (60–76)

0.1 (0.0–0.1)

201 (178–226)

0.2 (0.1–0.2)

Diabetes

986 (804–1349)

1.5 (1.2–2.0)

2729 (2267–3424)

4.1 (3.4–5.2)

CMD, total

4647 (3993–5680)

0.7 (0.6–0.8)

13169 (11,428–15,366)

1.9 (1.7–2.2)

  1. aEstimated using nationally representative data from the US adult population in 2012 based on a comparative risk assessment framework
  2. bCVD corresponds to the sum of CHD, hypertensive heart disease, and stroke; CMD corresponds to the sum of CVD and diabetes. Values may not precisely add up due to rounding
  3. cEstimates based on a low SES gradient (18.2% differential effect comparing those with lower than high school versus college education)
  4. CMD cardiometabolic diseases, CHD coronary heart disease, HD heart disease, UI uncertainty interval