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Table 3 Annual cardiometabolic deaths potentially prevented by a 10% and 30% price change in 7 selected foods in the US, by educational attainmenta

From: The potential impact of food taxes and subsidies on cardiovascular disease and diabetes burden and disparities in the United States

Disease outcomeb

Price change scenario

< High school (n = 60,742,522)

High school (n = 119,506,708)d

College (n = 28,482,268)

 

% price change

SES gradientc

No. of deaths/year prevented (95% UI)

Proportion (%) of deaths prevented (95% UI)

No. of deaths/year prevented (95% UI)

Proportion (%) of deaths prevented (95% UI)

No. of deaths/year prevented (95% UI)

Proportion (%) of deaths prevented (95% UI)

CHD

10%

Low

2657 (2325–3008)

3.0 (2.6–3.4)

8054 (7255–8908)

3.7 (3.3–4.1)

1486 (1323–1728)

2.8 (2.5–3.2)

 

High

3120 (2732–3531)

3.5 (3.1–3.9)

8054 (7255–8908)

3.7 (3.3–4.1)

1268 (1127–1478)

2.4 (2.1–2.8)

30%

Low

7380 (6492–8243)

8.2 (7.3–9.2)

21816 (19755–23985)

9.9 (9.0–10.9)

3996 (3563–4560)

7.5 (6.7–8.5)

 

High

8546 (7534–9532)

9.5 (8.4–10.6)

21816 (19755–23985)

9.9 (9.0–10.9)

3463 (3090–3960)

6.5 (5.8–7.4)

Hypertensive HD

10%

Low

12 (8–17)

0.1 (0.1–0.2)

29 (19–43)

0.1 (0.1–0.2)

3 (2–5)

0.1 (0.0–0.1)

 

High

14 (10–21)

0.2 (0.1–0.3)

29 (19–43)

0.1 (0.1–0.2)

3 (2–4)

0.1 (0.0–0.1)

30%

Low

35 (25–52)

0.4 (0.3–0.7)

87 (57–127)

0.4 (0.3–0.6)

10 (7–16)

0.2 (0.1–0.3)

 

High

42 (29–61)

0.5 (0.4–0.8)

87 (57–127)

0.4 (0.3–0.6)

9 (6–13)

0.2 (0.1–0.3)

Stroke, total

10%

Low

1588 (1415–1767)

5.0 (4.5–5.6)

4307 (3871–4768)

5.8 (5.2–6.4)

1041 (939–1148)

5.4 (4.9–6.0)

 

High

1864 (1662–2073)

5.9 (5.2–6.5)

4307 (3871–4768)

5.8 (5.2–6.4)

888 (801–981)

4.6 (4.2–5.1)

30%

Low

4347 (3890–4803)

13.7 (12.3–15.1)

11633 (10518–12778)

15.5 (14–17.1)

2740 (2488–3002)

14.2 (12.9–15.6)

 

High

5007 (4487–5524)

15.8 (14.1–17.4)

11633 (10518–12778)

15.5 (14–17.1)

2388 (2165–2620)

12.4 (11.2–13.6)

Diabetes

10%

Low

585 (498–697)

3.2 (2.7–3.8)

1488 (1297–1756)

3.7 (3.2–4.4)

197 (171–294)

2.4 (2.1–3.6)

 

High

687 (586–815)

3.8 (3.2–4.5)

1488 (1297–1756)

3.7 (3.2–4.4)

167 (146–255)

2.0 (1.8–3.1)

30%

Low

1631 (1410–1899)

9.0 (7.8–10.5)

4104 (3613–4700)

10.2 (9–11.7)

557 (489–705)

6.7 (5.9–8.5)

 

High

1895 (1643–2202)

10.5 (9.1–12.2)

4104 (3613–4700)

10.2 (9–11.7)

476 (418–618)

5.8 (5.1–7.5)

CMD, total

10%

Low

5286 (4847–5735)

3.1 (2.9–3.4)

14954 (13897–16010)

3.6 (3.3–3.8)

2934 (2714–3557)

2.9 (2.7–3.5)

 

High

6210 (5697–6735)

3.7 (3.4–4.0)

14954 (13897–16010)

3.6 (3.3–3.8)

2501 (2310–3074)

2.5 (2.3–3.0)

30%

Low

14672 (13487–15843)

8.7 (8.0–9.3)

40732 (38042–43415)

9.8 (9.1–10.4)

7906 (7357–8853)

7.7 (7.2–8.7)

 

High

16986 (15632–18331)

10 (9.2–10.8)

40732 (38042–43415)

9.8 (9.1–10.4)

6847 (6372–7751)

6.7 (6.2–7.6)

  1. aEstimated using nationally representative data from the US adult population in 2012 based on a comparative risk assessment framework (fruits, vegetables, nuts/seeds, whole grains, processed meat, unprocessed red meat, and sugar-sweetened beverages)
  2. bCVD corresponds to the sum of CHD, hypertensive heart disease and stroke, and CMD to the sum of CVD and diabetes. Values may not precisely sum due to rounding
  3. cWe evaluated two potential gradients by SES: a ‘low gradient’ scenario modeled based on a meta-analysis of price elasticity of food demand [23], reporting 18.2% greater responsiveness in the low vs. high SES groups, and a ‘high gradient’ scenario modeled after the differential responsiveness to SSBs taxation observed 1 year after the implementation of a 10% excise tax in Mexico [11], where a 65.4% greater responsiveness (low versus high SES) was noticed
  4. dThose with average educational attainment are assumed to experience the average price-responsiveness, and thus estimates in this group are not influenced by a change in the gradient of responsiveness comparing lower vs. higher SES
  5. CMD cardiometabolic diseases, CHD coronary heart disease, HD heart disease, SES socioeconomic status, UI uncertainty interval