Outcome 1 | Outcome 2 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Applied to GP training | Applied solely to GP training | ||||||||
Model 1 Sample A All medical school entrants | Model 2 Sample B Non-graduate entrants only | Model 3 Sample A All medical school entrants | Model 4 Sample B Non-graduate entrants only | ||||||
Predictor | df | χ2 | P value | χ2 | P value | χ2 | P value | χ2 | P value |
Sex | 1 | 76.37 | 0.0000 | 66.71 | 0.0000 | 43.87 | 0.0000 | 37.04 | 0.0000 |
BME | 1 | 31.81 | 0.0000 | 22.92 | 0.0000 | n/s | n/s | 9.05 | 0.0026 |
NS-SEC | 4 | n/s | n/s | 13.27 | 0.0100 | ||||
IMD | 4 | 10.95 | 0.0272 | ||||||
POLAR2 | 2 | ||||||||
Secondary school type | 1 | 3.66 | 0.0558 | ||||||
UK secondary educated | 1 | 16.43 | 0.0000 | n/s | n/s | 8.10 | 0.0044 | ||
Total UKCAT z-score | 1 | 16.87 | 0.0000 | 5.44 | 0.0197 | ||||
Total HESA tariff z-score | 1 | ||||||||
Medical school entry status | 2 | 9.73 | 0.0077 | 6.25 | 0.0440 | ||||
Medical school | 32 | 91.56 | 0.0000 | 83.18 | 0.0000 | 79.78 | 0.0000 | 76.17 | 0.0000 |
Intercalated | 1 | 36.03 | 0.0000 | 40.89 | 0.0000 | 17.63 | 0.0000 | 22.61 | 0.0000 |
EPM top two quartiles | 1 | 6.85 | 0.0088 | 4.50 | 0.0339 | n/s | n/s | ||
Foundation school | 26 | n/s | n/s | 44.43 | 0.0136 | 47.88 | 0.0056 | 45.07 | 0.0116 |
ARCP satisfactory progression | 1 | 5.07 | 0.0243 | n/s | n/s | n/s | n/s | ||
Model statistics | |||||||||
Minimum required sample size | 234 | 232 | 392 | 303 | |||||
Actual sample size | 6177 | 4327 | 6177 | 4375 | |||||
Mean probability (95% CI) | 0.427 (0.416 to 0.440) | 0.431 (0.417 to 0.445) | 0.255 (0.245 to 0.266) | 0.264 (0.256 to 0.281) | |||||
Hosmer–Lemeshow test | χ2(8) = 10.03 P = 0.263 | χ2(8) = 7.43 P = 0.491 | χ2(8) = 6.09 P = 0.637 | χ2(8) = 10.45 P = 0.235 | |||||
Area under ROC curve | 0.6421 | 0.6698 | 0.6394 | 0.6603 |