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Table 2 Results of logistic regression modelling

From: Factors associated with junior doctors’ decisions to apply for general practice training programmes in the UK: secondary analysis of data from the UKMED project

  

Outcome 1

Outcome 2

  

Applied to GP training

Applied solely to GP training

  

Model 1

Sample A

All medical school entrants

Model 2

Sample B

Non-graduate entrants only

Model 3

Sample A

All medical school entrants

Model 4

Sample B

Non-graduate entrants only

Predictor

df

χ2

P value

χ2

P value

χ2

P value

χ2

P value

Sex

1

76.37

0.0000

66.71

0.0000

43.87

0.0000

37.04

0.0000

BME

1

31.81

0.0000

22.92

0.0000

n/s

n/s

9.05

0.0026

NS-SEC

4

n/s

n/s

  

13.27

0.0100

  

IMD

4

  

10.95

0.0272

    

POLAR2

2

        

Secondary school type

1

      

3.66

0.0558

UK secondary educated

1

16.43

0.0000

n/s

n/s

8.10

0.0044

  

Total UKCAT z-score

1

  

16.87

0.0000

  

5.44

0.0197

Total HESA tariff z-score

1

        

Medical school entry status

2

9.73

0.0077

  

6.25

0.0440

  

Medical school

32

91.56

0.0000

83.18

0.0000

79.78

0.0000

76.17

0.0000

Intercalated

1

36.03

0.0000

40.89

0.0000

17.63

0.0000

22.61

0.0000

EPM top two quartiles

1

6.85

0.0088

4.50

0.0339

n/s

n/s

  

Foundation school

26

n/s

n/s

44.43

0.0136

47.88

0.0056

45.07

0.0116

ARCP satisfactory progression

1

5.07

0.0243

n/s

n/s

n/s

n/s

  

Model statistics

 Minimum required sample size

234

232

392

303

 Actual sample size

6177

4327

6177

4375

 Mean probability (95% CI)

0.427 (0.416 to 0.440)

0.431 (0.417 to 0.445)

0.255 (0.245 to 0.266)

0.264 (0.256 to 0.281)

 Hosmer–Lemeshow test

χ2(8) = 10.03

P = 0.263

χ2(8) = 7.43

P = 0.491

χ2(8) = 6.09

P = 0.637

χ2(8) = 10.45

P = 0.235

 Area under ROC curve

0.6421

0.6698

0.6394

0.6603

  1. Blank cells indicate non-significant predictor in preliminary model and excluded from final model
  2. ARCP Annual Review of Clinical Progression, BME Black and minority ethnic, CI confidence interval, EPM Educational Performance Measure, HESA Higher Education Statistics Agency, IMD Index of Multiple Deprivation, n/s non-significant predictor in reported final model, NS-SEC National Statistics Socio-economic Classification, POLAR2 Participation Of Local Areas classification, ROC receiver operating characteristic, UKCAT UK Clinical Aptitude Test