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Table 1 Relative impact of vaccination strategies on the predicted cumulative number of varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) cases (in the period 2004–2060) by population scenario

From: Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany – a mathematical modelling study

 

Varicella cases

(differences in %a)

HZ cases

(differences in %a)

Stationary population

 Varicella vaccinationb

–72.55%

+11.15%

 Varicella + HZ (current live) vaccinationc

–72.57%

+9.90%

 Varicella + HZ (new subunit) vaccinationc

–72.63%

+6.15%

Projected population

 Varicella vaccinationb

–69.70%

+10.84%

 Varicella + HZ (current live) vaccinationc

–69.72%

+9.52%

 Varicella + HZ (new subunit) vaccinationc

–69.80%

+5.18%

Projected population with increased immigration

 Varicella vaccinationb

–68.90%

+10.94%

 Varicella + HZ (current live) vaccinationc

–68.92%

+9.60%

 Varicella + HZ (new subunit) vaccinationc

–69.01%

+5.29%

  1. aCompared to scenario without varicella and HZ vaccination
  2. bVaccination coverage 86.9%/64.1% (2004–2010 as observed)
  3. cVaccination coverage 20%