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Table 2 Relative impact of projected population scenarios on the predicted cumulative number of varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) cases (in the period 2004–2060) by vaccination scenario

From: Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany – a mathematical modelling study

 

Varicella cases (differences in %a)

HZ cases (differences in %a)

Projected population 1b

Projected population 2c

Projected population 1b

Projected population 2c

No vaccination

–38.31%

–37.12%

+16.45%

+21.59%

Varicella vaccination

–31.90%

–28.76%

+16.12%

+21.35%

Varicella + HZ (current live) vaccination

–31.91%

–28.77%

+16.05%

+21.26%

Varicella + HZ (new subunit) vaccination

–31.95%

–28.82%

+15.39%

+20.60%

  1. aCompared to the stationary population model
  2. bWithout short-term immigration
  3. cWith short-term immigration