Table 1 Model variables with base-case values and ranges used in sensitivity analyses
From: Modelling the cost-effectiveness of pay-for-performance in primary care in the UK
Variable | Base-case value | Sensitivity analysis range | Source(s) |
|---|---|---|---|
QOF mortality benefit (age- and sex-adjusted per 100,000) | −3.68 | −8.16 to 0.80 | [6] |
Adjusted QOF mortality benefit (for those with age > 40 years with CVD) | −58.93 | −130.57 to 12.81 | Calculated |
All-cause age- and sex-specific mortality (and age and sex demographics) | Life table | Not applicable | [45] |
CVD prevalence, males (aged 45–64 years, aged 65–74 years) | 14.6%, 28.5% | +/− 20% | [16] |
CVD prevalence, females (aged 45–64 years, aged 65–74 years) | 8.4%, 22.5% | +/− 20% | [16] |
CVD mortality multiplier (male, female) | 1.6, 2.1 | +/−20% | [18] |
CVD utility | 0.796 | +/− 20% | [21] |
Non-fatal-to-fatal CVD events averted (ratio) | 1.63 | 0–10 | [20] |
QOF annual population-level incentive costs | £1,396,843,151 | £0–2,000,000,000 | |
QOF effect on utilisation costs per £ spent on incentives | £0.011 | -£1-£1 | |
Acute CVD event costs (i.e. costs within first year of CVD event) | £10,871 | +/−20% | [31] |
Chronic CVD event costs (i.e. annual costs for all years after first year) | £3282 | +/− 20% | [31] |
Average NHS costs by age | Age-based table | £0 to + 100% | [32] |
Discount rate | 3.5% | 0–5% | [14] |