Fig. 4

Comparisons of observed and model fit for ZIKV peak incidence in the 31 countries in Latin America. a Bayesian posterior checks that the estimated peak timing are consistent with the data; values between 0.01 and 0.99 indicate that the model and data are from the same distribution. b Quantile plot of the Bayesian posterior probabilities. c Comparison of the observed timing of the peak and estimated timing of the peak (with 95% CI). d Comparison of the estimated timing of the peak and the cross-validated estimates of peak timing (with 95% CI on the horizontal and vertical)