Table 1 Summary of the evidence for each population movement model tested on the Zika data. The prior and posterior probabilities were estimated using the approximate Bayesian computation – sequential Monte Carlo procedure (see Additional file 1 for further details)
From: Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis
Model of population movements | Gravity (simple) – M1 | Gravity (exponential terms included) – M2 | Radiation – M3 | Flight data – M4 | Combination of flight and radiation – M5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prior probability (Ï€(my)) | 0.232 | 0.246 | 0.224 | 0.052 | 0.092 |
Posterior probability (P(my|x)) | 0.001 | 0.344 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Bayes factor | 0.003 | 1 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Evidence for alternative model (and against model my) | Very weak evidence of fitting data | Model has best evidence of fitting data | Very weak evidence of fitting data | Very weak evidence of fitting data | Very weak evidence of fitting data |