Fig. 4
From: A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves
Fit of the simple logistic growth model to the SARS outbreak in Singapore. This simple model was unable to reproduce the bimodal shape of the outbreak. The top panels display the empirical distribution of r and K. Bottom panels show the model fit (left), the sub-epidemic profile (center), and the residuals (right). Black circles correspond to the data points. The best model fit (solid red line) and 95% prediction interval (dashed red lines) are also shown. Cyan curves are the associated uncertainty from individual bootstrapped curves assuming a Poisson error structure