Fig. 5
From: A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves
Best fit of the sub-epidemic wave model to the plague epidemic in Madagascar. This model yielded the best fit to the weekly incidence curve. Moreover, our results predict an epidemic wave comprised by 5 sub-epidemics of decreasing size. Further, parameter estimates are well identified as indicated by their relatively narrow confidence intervals. For instance, the 95% confidence interval for the size of the initial sub-epidemic ranges between 634 and 761. The top panels display the empirical distribution of the parameter estimates (r, p, K, and q). Bottom panels show the model fit (left), the sub-epidemic profile (center), and the residuals (right). Black circles correspond to the data points. The best model fit (solid red line) and 95% prediction interval (dashed red lines) are also shown. Cyan curves are the associated uncertainty from individual bootstrapped curves assuming a Poisson error structure. Different sub-epidemics comprising the epidemic wave are plotted using different colors