Fig. 1

Maximum number of cases in a year out of the 10 years following the ESEN2 study, in cases per million inhabitants, on a logarithmic scale. Numbers at the top of the bars are the total number of cases reported in the year with most cases. The dotted vertical line indicates the threshold delineation between countries that did (right) or did not (left) experience large outbreaks when testing the ability of population-level immunity metrics to predict either