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Table 3 Multistate models for the transitions from a healthy state to cardiometabolic disease and dementia

From: Risk prediction models for dementia: role of age and cardiometabolic risk factors

Transitions

HR (95% CI)

Risk scores assessed in 1991–1993, age 39 to 63 yearsa

CAIDE

  Healthy to incident cardiometabolic disease

1.54 (1.47, 1.61)

  Cardiometabolic disease to dementia

2.10 (1.69, 2.59)

  Healthy to dementia

2.13 (1.81, 2.50)

FRS

  Healthy to incident cardiometabolic disease

1.76 (1.69, 1.84)

  Cardiometabolic disease to dementia

1.81 (1.50, 2.20)

  Healthy to dementia

2.07 (1.78, 2.41)

FINDRISC

  Healthy to incident cardiometabolic disease

1.62 (1.56, 1.68)

  Cardiometabolic disease to dementia

1.21 (1.02, 1.44)

  Healthy to dementia

1.46 (1.26, 1.69)

Analysis stratified by baseline age

Risk scores assessed at 55 yearsb

CAIDE

  Healthy to incident cardiometabolic disease

1.33 (1.27, 1.39)

  Cardiometabolic disease to dementia

1.22 (1.00, 1.49)

  Healthy to dementia

1.13 (0.97, 1.33)

FRS

  Healthy to incident cardiometabolic disease

1.54 (1.47, 1.63)

  Cardiometabolic disease to dementia

1.25 (1.00, 1.56)

  Healthy to dementia

1.33 (1.11, 1.60)

FINDRISC

  Healthy to incident cardiometabolic disease

1.58 (1.50, 1.66)

  Cardiometabolic disease to dementia

1.07 (0.86, 1.32)

  Healthy to dementia

1.16 (0.96, 1.41)

Risk scores assessed at 60 yearsc

CAIDE

  Healthy to incident cardiometabolic disease

1.27 (1.20, 1.33)

  Cardiometabolic disease to dementia

0.98 (0.81, 1.19)

  Healthy to dementia

0.97 (0.82, 1.13)

FRS

  Healthy to incident cardiometabolic disease

1.47 (1.39, 1.55)

  Cardiometabolic disease to dementia

1.13 (0.91, 1.40)

  Healthy to dementia

1.13 (0.95, 1.33)

FINDRISC

  Healthy to incident cardiometabolic disease

1.56 (1.48, 1.65)

  Cardiometabolic disease to dementia

0.89 (0.70, 1.12)

  Healthy to dementia

1.06 (0.87, 1.29)

Risk scores assessed at 65 yearsd

CAIDE

  Healthy to incident cardiometabolic disease

1.24 (1.17, 1.32)

  Cardiometabolic disease to dementia

0.92 (0.73, 1.17)

  Healthy to dementia

1.00 (0.85, 1.18)

FRS

  Healthy to incident cardiometabolic disease

1.40 (1.31, 1.50)

  Cardiometabolic disease to dementia

1.07 (0.84, 1.36)

  Healthy to dementia

1.00 (0.85, 1.17)

FINDRISC

  Healthy to incident cardiometabolic disease

1.56 (1.45, 1.68)

  Cardiometabolic disease to dementia

0.82 (0.62, 1.09)

  Healthy to dementia

0.89 (0.72, 1.10)

  1. CAIDE Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia, FRS: Framingham cardiovascular Risk Score, FINDRISC Finnish Diabetes Risk Score
  2. aN overall = 7159 free of cardiometabolic disease and dementia; N = 2105 with incident cardiometabolic disease, 113 of whom developed dementia subsequently; N = 5054 free of cardiometabolic disease over the follow-up, 175 developed dementia
  3. bN overall = 6162 free of cardiometabolic disease and dementia; N = 1637 with incident cardiometabolic disease, 92 of whom developed dementia subsequently; N = 4525 free of cardiometabolic disease over the follow-up, 148 developed dementia
  4. cN overall = 6074 free of cardiometabolic disease and dementia; N = 1427 with incident cardiometabolic disease, 97 of whom developed dementia subsequently; N = 4647 free of cardiometabolic disease over the follow-up, 162 developed dementia
  5. dN overall = 5242 free of cardiometabolic disease and dementia; N = 931 with incident cardiometabolic disease, 68 of whom developed dementia subsequently; N = 4311 free of cardiometabolic disease over the follow-up, 144 developed dementia
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BMC Medicine

ISSN: 1741-7015

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