Figure 5

Predicted progression of cumulative laboratory-confirmed A/H7N9 cases in the provinces of Shanghai and Zhejiang (n = 73 cases) according to dates of symptoms onset, in the absence of interventions (solid blue line). Dashed blue lines represent 95% confidence intervals. Predictions are based on an exponential model fit to the progression of reported cases from the end of February to 6 April, prior to live bird market closures, and using a negative binomial distribution to account for over-dispersion in case counts. Shown in red is the prediction of the model fit past 6 April. Black dots indicate the progression of reported A/H7N9 cases. Vertical dashed lines indicate the timing of the preemptive live bird market closures in Shanghai (6 April) and Zhejiang (15 April), respectively.