Table 5 Cumulative total events averted per 100,000 fully vaccinated individuals (all ages) across 43 sub-Saharan African countries, cumulative by 5 year periods for each of the four deliveries: EPI (6–12 weeks), EPI with boosters, expanded routine (6–9 months) and expanded routine with booster
Event averted | At 5 year followup | At 10 year followup | At 15 year followup |
|---|---|---|---|
EPI (6-12 weeks) | |||
Uncomplicated | 62,110 (40,590-70,600) | 61,750 (41,890-73,220) | 55,010 (38,750-66,240) |
Severe | 1,500 (1,040-2,100) | 1,080 (480-1,630) | 810 (120-1,450) |
Hospitalisations | 720 (490-1,060) | 520 (220-810) | 400 (60-710) |
Direct deaths | 180 (110-290) | 150 (60-240) | 130 (40-210) |
All deaths | 430 (200-550) | 430 (230-580) | 410 (240-560) |
DALYs | 23,120 (10,990-29,720) | 23,080 (12,640-30,790) | 22,370 (12,930-29,910) |
Direct DALYs | 9,810 (6,110-16,010) | 8,600 (3,860-13,210) | 7,420 (2,680-11,990) |
EPI with booster | |||
Uncomplicated | 83,130 (54,620-94,170) | 90,170 (60,770-106,350) | 81,720 (57,160-97,700) |
Severe | 2,080 (1,460-2,850) | 1690 (1,060-2,410) | 1,340 (600-2,050) |
Hospitalisations | 1,000 (690-1,410) | 810 (510-1,180) | 650 (300-990) |
Direct deaths | 240 (150-360) | 230 (140-340) | 200 (100-300) |
All deaths | 530 (270-700) | 550 (320-690) | 540 (310-690) |
DALYs | 28,540 (14,830-37,290) | 29,760 (17,290-37,130) | 29,050 (17,030-37,190) |
Direct DALYs | 13,250 (8,220-19,680) | 12,670 (7,830-18,840) | 11,190 (6,300-17,200) |
Expanded routine (6-9 months) | |||
Uncomplicated | 66,310 (43,570-75,950) | 65,990 (44,410-78,410) | 58,130 (40,080-69,970) |
Severe | 1,740 (1200-2,340) | 1,410 (990-1,930) | 1160 (710-1,650) |
Hospitalisations | 830 (570-1,190) | 680 (460-960) | 560 (320-830) |
Direct deaths | 180 (100-300) | 170 (100-270) | 150 (80-230) |
All deaths | 370 (180-510) | 380 (210-490) | 360 (180-460) |
DALYs | 20,120 (9,960-27,390) | 20,380 (11,250-26,430) | 19,620 (9,970-25,100) |
Direct DALYs | 10,200 (5,690-16,550) | 9,460 (5,500-14,800) | 8,320 (4,790-13,080) |
Expanded routine with booster | |||
Uncomplicated | 90,300 (59,970-102,800) | 99,120 (67,190-116,890) | 89,750 (62,050-107,410) |
Severe | 2,350 (1,660-3,090) | 2,070 (1,580-2,780) | 1,730 (1,210-2,410) |
Hospitalisations | 1,120 (780-1,530) | 990 (740-1,380) | 830 (580-1,190) |
Direct deaths | 250 (160-370) | 240 (170-360) | 210 (140-320) |
All deaths | 480 (260-640) | 500 (310-620) | 480 (290-580) |
DALYs | 25,520 (14,090-34,360) | 27,020 (16,770-33,440) | 25,950 (15,940-31,680) |
Direct DALYs | 13,680 (8,690-20,200) | 13,500 (9,440-19,740) | 11,940 (8,070-17,660) |