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Table 4 Comparison between random versus sequential selections of IUs for implementing delivery of annual MDAs

From: Continental-scale, data-driven predictive assessment of eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, in sub-Saharan Africa by 2020

 

Random

Sequential

95% EP Th

WHO 1%

95% EP Th

WHO 1%

Angola

2032

2020

2032

2020

Benin

2028

2019

2023

2018

Burkina Faso

2032

2022

2031

2018

Cameroon

2033

2023

2029

2018

Central African Republic

2033

2022

2033

2022

Chad

2033

2022

2033

2022

Comoros

2023

2010

2023

2010

Congo

2033

2022

2032

2020

Cote d’Ivoire

2029

2018

2028

2018

Democratic Republic of the Congo

2032

2021

2032

2021

Djibouti

2031

2021

2031

2021

Egypt

2020

2004

2019

2004

Equatorial Guinea

2033

2021

2033

2021

Ethiopia

2030

2020

2028

2017

Gabon

2033

2022

2033

2022

Ghana

2020

2017

2019

2017

Guinea

2031

2021

2032

2021

Guinea Bissau

2034

2018

2031

2018

Kenya

2028

2021

2025

2018

Liberia

2032

2021

2030

2018

Madagascar

2028

2021

2026

2019

Malawi

2033

2020

2030

2018

Mali

2032

2020

2030

2018

Mozambique

2034

2022

2032

2020

Niger

2027

2018

2024

2017

Nigeria

2034

2023

2032

2019

Senegal

2033

2020

2034

2019

Sierra Leone

2026

2015

2026

2015

South Sudan

2031

2020

2031

2020

Sudan

2035

2026

2034

2024

Tanzania

2034

2024

2031

2018

The Gambia

2033

2022

2033

2022

Togo

2016

2006

2016

2006

Uganda

2033

2023

2031

2019

Zambia

2033

2022

2033

2022

Zimbabwe

2033

2020

2033

2021

  1. The elimination years shown represent the calendar year when 100% of IUs are predicted to have achieved elimination. For each method, the elimination years were calculated for the model-generated site-specific 95% elimination probability thresholds (EP Th) as well as for the WHO 1% threshold. The results are for the current MDA plus supplemental VC coverages (i.e., for the MDA1 intervention scenario). The sub-Saharan countries not implementing MDA as of 2015 were assumed to start MDA in 2016