Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data

Ziauddeen, Nida; Wilding, Sam; Roderick, Paul J.; Macklon, Nicholas S.; Smith, Dianna; Chase, Debbie; Alwan, Nisreen A.

doi:10.1186/s12916-020-01568-z

Table 2 Intercept and regression coefficients of the prediction models for overweight and obesity (≥ 91st centile) in children aged 4–5 years before and after shrinkage

From: Predicting the risk of childhood overweight and obesity at 4–5 years using population-level pregnancy and early-life healthcare data

Predictors	Booking		Birth		Early life (~ 1 year)		Early life (~ 2 years)
Predictors	Coefficient	Shrunken coefficient	Coefficient	Shrunken coefficient	Coefficient	Shrunken coefficient	Coefficient	Shrunken coefficient
Intercept	0.877	0.845	2.215	2.169	− 5.186	− 5.160	− 10.510	− 10.466
Maternal age at booking, years	1.394	1.377	1.114	1.101	− 0.006	− 0.006
Maternal BMI at booking, kg/m²	− 7.061	− 6.971	− 6.371	− 6.295	− 6.733	− 6.686	− 6.687	− 6.656
Maternal smoking status at booking
Never smoked	Ref		Ref		Ref		Ref
Ex-smoker	0.099	0.098	0.080	0.079	0.047	0.047	0.044	0.044
Current smoker	0.436	0.431	0.583	0.576	0.532	0.528	0.536	0.534
Maternal educational attainment
University or above			Ref		Ref		Ref
College			0.088	0.087	0.130	0.129	0.116	0.115
Secondary or lower			0.103	0.102	0.190	0.188	0.174	0.173
Maternal ethnicity
White	Ref		Ref		Ref		Ref
Mixed	0.020	0.020	0.105	0.103	0.098	0.098	0.019	0.019
Asian	0.274	0.271	0.444	0.439	0.589	0.585	0.402	0.400
Black/African/Caribbean	0.655	0.647	0.778	0.769	0.771	0.766	0.511	0.509
Other	0.084	0.083	0.124	0.122	0.235	0.234	− 0.073	− 0.073
Maternal intake of folic acid supplements
Taking prior to pregnancy	Ref		Ref		Ref		Ref
Started taking once pregnant	0.094	0.093	0.120	0.118	0.156	0.155	0.155	0.154
Not taking supplement	0.053	0.053	0.084	0.083	0.160	0.158	0.159	0.159
Maternal first language English
No	Ref		Ref
Yes	− 0.319	− 0.315	− 0.285	− 0.282
Partnership status at booking
Partnered	Ref		Ref		Ref		Ref
Single	0.182	0.179	0.193	0.190	0.196	0.195	0.176	0.175
Parity at booking
0	Ref		Ref
1	0.017	0.016	− 0.108	− 0.106
2	0.093	0.092	− 0.057	− 0.056
3	0.173	0.171	0.019	0.018
Birthweight, kg			0.107	0.106	0.129	0.128	− 0.114	− 0.113
Gestational age at birth, days			− 0.011	− 0.011	− 0.008	− 0.008
Infant gender
Male					Ref		Ref
Female					0.426	0.423	0.366	0.364
Infant weight, kg					0.753	0.748	0.825	0.821
Transformations
Maternal age at booking	(Maternal age/10)^− 2		(Maternal age/10)^− 2
Maternal BMI at booking	(Maternal BMI/10)^− 1		(Maternal BMI/10)^− 1		(Maternal BMI/10)^− 1		(Maternal BMI/10)^− 1
Birthweight			Birthweight²
Discrimination and calibration
AUC	0.66 0.65 to 0.67		0.69 0.68 to 0.70		0.78 0.77 to 0.79		0.83 0.82 to 0.84
Calibration slope (standard error)	0.98 (0.03)		0.98 (0.03)		0.99 (0.01)		0.99 (0.01)

Only predictors significant at p < 0.157 were included in the prediction models. Categorical variables with at least one significant category have been included

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ISSN: 1741-7015

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