Parameter* | Base case value | Range in sensitivity analysis†| References |
---|---|---|---|
Natural history | |||
 Mean duration of latent infection period, days | 3 days | – | [17] |
 Mean duration of early infectious stage (subclinical/clinical), days | 2.3 days | – | [17] |
 Mean duration of late infectious stage (subclinical/clinical), days | 8 days | – | |
 Relative infectiousness of subclinical infection to clinical infection | 1 | 0.5–1 | |
 Relative infectiousness of early infectious stage to late infectious stage | 2 | 1–3 | |
 Probability of developing clinical symptoms | Age-dependent (see Additional file 1: Table S2) | – | [13] |
 Background infection rate in community outside shelter | Shelter-specific (see Additional file 1) | 0–439 infections/1,000,000 person-days | |
 Basic reproduction number, R0 | Variable | 1.5–6.2 | Estimated |
Intervention | |||
 Symptom screening | |||
  Sensitivity | 0.4 | 0.3–0.5 | Assumed based on [72] |
  Specificity | 0.9 | 0.8–0.9 | Assumed |
  Compliance of symptomatic individuals with PCR testing | 80% | 50–100% | Assumed |
 PCR testing | |||
  Sensitivity | 0.75 | 0.6–0.9 | |
  Specificity | 1 | 0.95–1 | |
  Frequency | Twice weekly | Daily–monthly | |
  Compliance | 80% | 50–100% | Assumed |
 Masks | |||
  Effectiveness at reducing infectious material exhaled | 30% | 10–50% | |
  Effectiveness at reducing infectious material inhaled | 40% | 20–60% | |
  Compliance | 60% | 30–100% |