Fig. 5

Age distribution of cumulative measles cases over 2000–2050 by different contact patterns. Proportions of measles cases aged 0, 1, 2, and 3+ years in India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Ethiopia, and other 6 countries (Afghanistan, Sudan, Tanzania, Niger, Somalia, DR Congo) with high measles burden are presented, by the assumptions of uniform mixing, proportional mixing, POLYMOD Great Britain contact matrix, and country-specific synthetic contact matrices. Compared to uniform mixing, contact patterns that consider age-related mixing tend to result in a lower average age at infection. Based on the POLYMOD matrix, the projected cases are more concentrated in younger age groups compared to the other contact patterns. Abbreviations: MCV1 first routine dose of measles-containing vaccine, MCV2 second routine dose of measles-containing vaccine, SIAs supplementary immunisation activities