Fig. 1

Study sample selection. Inclusion for this study was dependent on participants having primary care data available and eligibility for the NHS Health check. In other words, participants were between 40 and 74 years and had no existing diagnoses that would normally mean regular primary care monitoring. Overall summaries in Figs. 2 and 3 relate to the full study sample (n = 140,899), and outcome modelling was performed with the covariate-matched sample (n = 97,204), with details shown in Table 1 and Figs. 4 and 5